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Pattern, Price & Time Daily Analysis PDF Print E-mail
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Tuesday, 07 October 2008

Image ENERGIES
December Crude Oil is trading higher overnight on profit-taking and a firmer Euro. Traders are expecting the market to trade between $90 and $100 over the near term. Look for this market to inch higher as the Euro firms. Renewed strength in the Dollar will break this market once again under $90 with an ultimate target of about $72 a possibility over the short-term. The best trading opportunity is still on the short-side, but bears may have to wait a few days before a new opportunity surfaces.

METALS
December Gold and December Silver are trading higher as the financial crisis is spreading around the world and threatening the safety of financial institutions. This rally is being driven by fears that more financial institutions will get bailed out or fail. Look for this flight-to-safety rally to continue as there is plenty of money around that needs protection. Unlike the other previous attempts to rally the metals, this current rally could last a little longer and move higher as a good support base has been built. Central banks have been printing money which should lead to additional upside pressure over the near-term. Look for buying opportunities on breaks.

GRAINS
Soybeans and corn may find some relief today from the relentless selling pressure which has been driving this market lower. The rally is likely to be triggered by short-covering so there is no reason to get too excited at this time. Credit remains tight for elevators who are likely to take advantage of any rally to sell more inventory. Demand is down as foreign countries are having trouble getting credit to complete deals. In addition, shipping companies are also having a hard time getting the needed credit to move any grains. Hedge funds have been pulling money out of commodities and have no reason at this time to reenter these markets. True supply and demand fundamentals are continuing to be ignored as these markets are focusing on the economy and the worsening global credit crisis. Look for more downside pressure after a 2 to 3 day relief rally.

SOFTS
The softs complex may experience a relief rally due to short-covering. Fund buying has disappeared from these markets, particularly Cocoa and Coffee. The global credit crisis has created a shutdown in most shipping. Buyers have not been willing to take any risks because of the possibility of shipments being halted because of the lack of funding. The markets are also down because of fears that a global recession will curtail demand. If the Dollar weakens, however, look for 2 to 3 days of short-covering before new selling emerges.

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DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and, as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The impact of seasonal and geopolitical events is already factored into market prices. Prices in the underlying cash or physical markets do not necessarily move in tandem with futures and options prices. In no event should the content of this correspondence be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Brewer Futures Group, LLC, Brewer Investment Group, LLC, or their subsidiaries and affiliates that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of options and/or futures positions such as "spread" or "straddle" trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. Past results are no indication of future performance.

Information provided in this correspondence is intended solely for informational purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.

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