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FINANCIALS, EQUITIES and CURRENCIES |
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Friday, 31 October 2008 |
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 FINANCIALS
December Treasury Bonds and Treasury Notes are trading mixed to better as fear of a global recession slowly creeps back into the market after Thursday’s report that the U.S. Third Quarter Gross Domestic Product had contracted. Fed Funds indicate the market is already beginning to price in a rate cut in December.
Overnight the Bank of Japan reluctantly cut its benchmark interest rate to .30 percent down to .50 percent. This action seemed more like a symbolic move since the rest of the world has been lowering rates for several weeks.
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Pattern, Price & Time Daily Analysis |
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Friday, 31 October 2008 |
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ENERGIES
The two-day short-covering rally in the December Crude Oil appears to be over as traders are once again focusing on the weakening U.S. economy. Traders are expecting the economic contraction in the U.S. to cut into demand for crude oil and its products. The strong Dollar is also encouraging selling. Seasonal upside pressure could provide support for December Heating Oil. It is going to get cold in the Northeast and consumers will need to heat their homes. Continue to watch December Heating Oil for signs of a bottom. Although this market may still feel downside pressure, heating oil may not fall as much as crude oil.
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Thursday, 30 October 2008 |
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 The Federal Open Market Committee statement yesterday (October 29) hinted that there is room for inflation. We could see higher commodity prices again if the world’s central banks cannot form a united front in the coming weeks with regard to interest rates. The interest rate change caused traders and investors to take money out of the treasuries. That money is currently running into stocks and some commodities. Energy, Grains and Metals have received an immediate boost. Keep an eye out for behind-the-scenes and lightly reported coordinated efforts by governments and central banks.
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Jay Norris' Forex Trend Maps |
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Thursday, 30 October 2008 |
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Welcome to Jay Norris' Forex Trend Maps, a recap of the Forex markets daily, posted at approximately 4:30 P.M. (CDT). Contact Jay at 1-800-971-2154 or at 312-896-3986.
Click on the link below to view today's charts and hear Jay's analysis.
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Dollar Falls as Interest Rate Differential Widens for the Time Being |
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Thursday, 30 October 2008 |
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On Wednesday the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 bp to 1.0%. The cut came as no surprise as Fed Funds traders had already priced in the amount. The big surprise was that the European Central Bank did not cut rates in a coordinated effort with the Fed. This shows that after weeks of working together to stem the credit crisis, these two central banks may not be on the same page. It is pretty well known that the ECB is going to have to cut rates on November 6 and again in December. There does not seem to be any reasonable economic reason why it did not cut today other than it wants to trigger a rally in the Euro. Besides the interest rate differential making the Euro more attractive, German Chancellor Merkel fueled additional upside action by saying that Germany will announce "bold" measures to strengthen the economy.
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