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Pattern, Price & Time Daily Analysis |
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Wednesday, 27 August 2008 |
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 FINANCIALS
Treasuries are trading flat overnight ahead of today’s 2-year auction. Bonds and Notes are expected to remain high as the longer term view has inflation subsiding and interest rates remaining relatively lower.
Tuesday’s release of the FOMC minutes showed that the Fed is still concerned about rising unemployment and a slow economy. Although they stated a willingness to raise rates, no action is expected this year until the economy shows signs of bottoming. This news is prompting traders to call for hike in April or May of next year. Traders are betting there is almost no chance of a rate hike at the next Fed meeting on September 16 and only a 22% chance in December. This news should continue to underpin the treasuries.
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The EUR USD felt downside pressure most of the day session as a weaker than expected Ifo Institute Report showed German business confidence declined this month to 94.8. This was the lowest level in three years and, coupled with the recent contraction of the European economy during the second quarter, sent signals to traders that the ECB should be considering an interest rate cut to stimulate growth. European financial market traders are supporting this notion by placing bets in the direction of a rate cut. 
I have been in the commodities industry over 25 years having worked for several institutional firms...
James A. Hyerczyk is a registered Commodity Trading Advisor with the National Futures Association....